The National Hurricane Center is now putting some heft behind something that the European weather models have been hinting at for a few days now… the possibility of a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC has indicated that there’s a “low” chance (20% specifically) that a trough of low pressure currently sitting over Kentucky/Mississippi/Tennessee will amble down into the Gulf of Mexico, percolate in the roughly 84° Gulf waters, turn into… something, and then maybe go back on land somewhere between Mexico and Moscow.
In the latest model runs, both the European model (ECMWF) and the brand-spankin’-new version of the US model (GFS) have started to agree that something will happen, maybe around the Florida Panhandle or New Orleans. But honestly, things are just too far away to know yet just what’s going on.
So what are you supposed to do with that information? Not much. Your job over the next few days is to not worry about this thing. You should have already done your most basic hurricane prep before the season started on June 1st… and there’s no reason to implement any action plans at this point. We won’t know for quite a while whether or not this will develop… and if it does, how strong it’ll be or where it’ll go. Right now none of the models seem to be pushing it (whatever it is) toward the Attractions area. So go… enjoy the sunshine if you can find it in between the daily monsoons… and just keep an eye out over the next few days to see if anything develops.