5PM Saturday: Track Stays Offshore. Tropical Storm Watch for Vero Beach. Standby, but Don’t Stand Down. Don’t Panic.

The 5PM Advisory continues to show good news for the Attractions area, but we still have to remain vigilant for another day or so. As discussed earlier, it’s safe to temporarily suspend preparedness efforts in the Attractions area today, however we have to make sure the path “sticks” over the coming days. Remember – we’re still inside the cone of uncertainty, and the cone itself is only right 66% of the time. The National Hurricane Center speaks to this in their latest tropical discussion:

THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE EARLIER RUN, SO
IT HAS NOT BEEN NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE NHC FORECAST IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS HIGH WHILE THE HURRICANE
IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.  ANY DEVIATION OF DORIAN'S CORE TO THE LEFT WOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

GIVEN THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD EXPAND, AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST, A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE EAST OF FLORIDA FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

Even on the current track, there’s still a 40% to 70% chance of tropical storm force winds in the Attractions area by midweek as the storm passes by offshore. The chance of hurricane force winds in the attractions area is currently less than 20%.

Vero Beach, including Disney’s Vero Beach Resort, is under a Tropical Storm Watch due to the long-term possibility of high winds in the coming days. The current track also means the potential for devastating impact to portions of the Bahamas, with a concern for extended wind, rain, and storm surge impacts at Disney’s Castaway Cay. And if the storm continues on the expected path, storm surge impacts are a potential concern for Disney’s Hilton Head Island Resort.

Key messages from the 5PM Advisory:

1. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DEVASTATING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS ARE EXPECTED ON THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.

2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. SINCE DORIAN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD
AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE, KNOW IF THEY
ARE IN A HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE, AND LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY
LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

3. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

Next track is due at 11PM. Here’s hoping for more good news… the models seem to be all coming together on this track, but anything can change at any time. Keep calm and carry on!

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