5PM Monday: Tropical Storm Force Winds Expected in Attractions Area Tuesday. You Prepared; Don’t Panic.

The 5PM Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps the center of Dorian offshore… maybe even by a few miles more than the last advisory. That’s good. The attractions area is no longer directly inside the cone of uncertainty. That seems good, but please don’t let it lull you into a false sense of complete security. Things are better than your nagging storm anxiety might try to make you believe, but we still have some impacts to contend with.

“But we’re not in the cone.” Correct. But, as we’ve said before, the cone of uncertainty represents one thing very simply… the most likely path of the very center of the storm. The line down the center, with the hurricane icons, is the actual forecast path of the center. The cone around it represents an average historical forecast error; even if the lines are wrong then the center should still be within that cone 66% of the time based on their historic success rate. That obviously leaves another 33%+ outside the cone where the storm surprised them. Obviously the less time between today and the date being forecast, they’re more likely to be right, so the 66% envelope is much smaller. The storm is coming in relatively soon, so no more attractions in the cone.

BUT!

This is a BIG storm. Just because the center is well offshore and the attractions are out of the cone, it does NOT mean no impacts for the attractions. Take a look at the image below. We’ve overlaid current (5PM) winds over the current position of the storm. Red is hurricane force, orange is severe storm force, and yellow is tropical storm force.

The storm has been undergoing an eyewall replacement, which means the wind field is getting a bit wider. So if you imagine those circles moving up the path to say 2AM Wednesday when the storm’s center is offshore of Cape Canaveral… you can see why the central Attractions area remains under a tropical storm warning.

Tuesday begins the main event for the attractions area. Here are specifics from the National Weather Service…

Orange County (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld):

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orlando
    - Apopka
    - Christmas

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon 
          until Wednesday afternoon

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 
      73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical 
          storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, 
          size, or intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property 
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for 
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with 
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few 
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door 
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. 
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater 
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several 
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, 
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more 
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized 
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter 
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and 
          ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in 
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding 
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor 
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds 
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and 
          bridge closures. 

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few 
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has increased from the previous 
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a 
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to 
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before 
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter 
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the 
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with 
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, 
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or 
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, 
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown 
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Northern Brevard County (Kennedy Space Center, Port Canaveral):

518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Titusville
    - Cocoa

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon 
          until Wednesday evening

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 74 to 
      110 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 
          2 hurricane force due to possible forecast changes in 
          track, size, or intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property 
          should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind 
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some 
          having window, door, and garage door failures leading to 
          structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some 
          destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. 
          Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. 
        - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and 
          roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, 
          and access routes impassable.
        - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet 
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Begins late this afternoon

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm 
      surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of 
          greater than 6 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to 
          completion before driving conditions become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for 
          your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or 
          needlessly risk lives.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding 
          accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to 
          buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by 
          floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an 
          extended period.
        - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary 
          roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems 
          and barriers may become stressed.
        - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
        - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many 
          small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
          unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and 
          stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for moderate 
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues 
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take 
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life. 

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations 
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with 
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, 
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, 
          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken 
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas 
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and 
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on 
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. 
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge 
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few 
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a 
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to 
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before 
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter 
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the 
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with 
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, 
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or 
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, 
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown 
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Polk County (Legoland):

455 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lakeland
    - Winter Haven
    - Bartow

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
      57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
          intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
          become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
          bridge closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

Osceola County

518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Kissimmee
    - Yeehaw Junction
    - Harmony

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon 
          until Wednesday morning

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 
      73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical 
          storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, 
          size, or intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property 
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for 
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with 
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few 
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door 
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. 
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater 
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several 
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, 
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more 
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized 
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter 
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and 
          ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in 
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding 
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor 
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds 
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and 
          bridge closures. 

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few 
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has increased from the previous 
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a 
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to 
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before 
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter 
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the 
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with 
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, 
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or 
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, 
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown 
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Southern Lake County

 518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Clermont
    - Mascotte

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Near tropical storm force winds
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 
      57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm 
          force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or 
          intensity.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be 
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind 
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees 
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown 
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving 
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized 
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter 
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and 
          ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in 
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding 
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor 
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds 
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and 
          bridge closures. 

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms 
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect 
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest 
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

Key messages from NHC:

1. DEVASTATING WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD REMAIN IN
SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE EYE.

2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE COASTS
OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF
DORIAN'S CENTER. WATER LEVELS COULD BEGIN TO RISE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW
ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

3. THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST NORTH CAROLINA.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS,
ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.

Next updated track is due at 11PM. It’s been a long, admittedly nerve-wracking track of Hurricane Dorian. We’ll finally be through with him very soon! Keep calm and carry on!

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