A Prompt Start to Hurricane Season: TD3 Forms. Gulf-Bound, then TBD. Don’t Panic.

Hurricane season starts today, both on the calendar and IRL. Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to potentially become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by the upcoming weekend. After that? Well, who knows. It’s far too early to know any US mainland impacts at this point. Strength, timing, and location are all in play. Early thinking, based on the latest runs of the American and Europeans models and still very much subject to change, is that it may be more of a Louisiana or Texas event. For now, enjoy your week and check back later on. Keep calm and carry on!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three 
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.2 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). 
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The 
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a 
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay 
of Campeche through late Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the 
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and 
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or 
Tuesday. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO 
header WTNT43 KNHC. 

RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain 
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states 
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This 
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10 
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum 
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of 
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.

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