Isaias is showing signs of strengthening and may become a hurricane as it skirts the Florida coast. And though the track continues to nudge eastward, the Attractions area remains just barely within the cone and some other Disney interests are now under the National Hurricane Center’s watches and warnings.
Disney’s Castaway Cay is now under a tropical storm warning, and Disney’s Vero Beach Resort (which only recently reopened following its COVID-19 closure) is now under a tropical storm watch. As a reminder, “tropical storm” refers to a system with sustained winds from 39 MPH to 73 MPH.
For the central Attractions Area, we remain within the cone of uncertainty… but remember that the cone refers only to the area where the center of the storm could pass (and even then represents approximately a 65% level of certainty). Rain and wind can extend well beyond the cone. The NHC says there’s now a roughly 10%-20% chance of tropical storm force winds in the Attractions area as the system passes by offshore late Saturday and early Sunday.
A few pertinent excerpts from the NHC’s 5PM Advisory:
Since the new center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in the track may occur. In addition, strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the center. It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher than of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday and Saturday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas tonight through Friday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required tonight or early tomorrow if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern Florida this weekend, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding.
We still have some waiting and watching to do… keep calm and carry on!