Sunday Morning: An improved Outlook on Isaias. Don’t panic.

“Too late. Had your chance… muffed it.”

Lord Scrumptious, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang

The National Hurricane Center says that it appears Tropical Storm Isaias has missed its opportunity to restrengthen into a hurricane. The storm has been fighting wind shear and dry air overnight and weakened from a Category 1 Hurricane to a high-end Tropical Storm. Despite some impressive convection last night, the system remains lopsided this morning with the worst weather on the east side. That, of course, is quite good news for central Florida.

The Hurricane Warning that had been in effect for the Space Coast and Treasure Coast has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for Orange County (including Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld) remains in effect as gusty squalls from Isaias are still expected to pass through the area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

Here’s the latest comprehensive update from the local National Weather Service office.

For Orange County, including Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld:

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
516 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

FLZ045-021800-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Orange-
516 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orlando
    - Apopka
    - Christmas

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this afternoon
          until early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-2 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      localized flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
          become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
          bridge closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - https://www.ready.gov
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts
        - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

We’ll soon be able to put Isaias in our rear view mirror… keep calm and carry on!

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