Let’s skip the pleasantries and just get down to bottom line data. It is more and more likely that the central Florida Attractions area will see hurricane conditions sometime over the next couple of days, with tropical storm conditions all but certain. Theme park impacts are more and more likely.
Orange County (home to Disney, Universal, Sea World)
Tropical Storm Warning in effect. Hurricane Watch in effect.
NWS forecast as of 12:30 PM Tuesday:
Tuesday night (tonight): Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 73. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 81. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind around 10 mph.
Alert text and local impacts expected:
1119 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday afternoon
until Friday afternoon
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 6-10 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger
damage paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are
urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather
arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Keep Calm and Carry On!