The Storm Prediction Center says there’s a slight chance (risk level two out of five) for severe thunderstorms occurring in the Attractions area on Saturday, February 6. Two distinct rounds of severe weather are possible, one in late afternoon to early evening, and another overnight.
Interestingly, the overall risk of any storms forming is relatively low (less than 40%), but those that do form have a fair chance of becoming severe at times.
The primary risks are damaging winds and hail (a15%-29% chance of those occurring within 25 miles of where you are), along with a non-zero chance of an isolated tornado (2%-4%).
Here’s the SPC’s latest thinking:
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. ...Central/Southeast FL this afternoon... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A low-amplitude progressive shortwave trough is noted this morning over the central Gulf of Mexico moving rapidly eastward toward FL. Ahead of this system, southerly low level winds are increasing over FL, aiding in the slow northward progression of a weak surface warm front. Broken clouds and partial daytime heating is occurring south of the front, which combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few thunderstorms may develop during the early-mid afternoon over the central peninsula and track toward the east-central coast. These storms would be near the retreating warm front, and in a vertical shear profiles sufficient for updraft rotation. These storms could pose a threat of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Central/Northern FL after dark... The main cluster of convection associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to move into the FL Big Bend region after dark. Model solutions are in general agreement that these storms will track east-northeastward along the retreating warm front through the overnight period. Relatively strong wind fields and lift in this region suggest a risk of a supercell structures, capable of damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Sunday’s weather also bears watching, with the SPC already putting the area in a lower Marginal Risk (level one out of five).
Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High… what’s the difference? Learn about the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook products and how they’re issued by reading our two part series:
Understanding Severe Weather Outlooks: Part One | Part Two