Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Orange County (home to Disney, Universal, and Sea World). A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of Brevard County (home to Port Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center), as well as Indian river County (home to Disney’s Vero Beach Resort).
Nicole is not expected to be anything like Hurricane Ian, but it will still likely be a widespread, sloppy storm that could bring some notable impacts to central Florida.
The current projected path of the storm brings it over central Florida by mid/late-week and then has it hanging a u-turn to go over the northern part of the state.
As is always the case, it’s best not to focus on the exact path of the center of the storm but rather the overall impacts to our area.
Portions of Orange County could see winds of 40-50 MPH with 65 MPH gusts on Wednesday night and into Thursday. Rainfall of 3-6 inches is possible, with isolated higher amounts not out of the question.
Here’s the current National Weather Service Forecast for the attractions area (as of 11:45 Monday 11/7):
- Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Windy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
- Wednesday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
- Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
- Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Windy, with a southeast wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
- Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
And here’s the text of the tropical storm watch for the attractions area:
Orange-
1016 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 65 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday evening
until Thursday afternoon
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Those in the central Florida area should take the next day or so to ensure their hurricane kit is restocked (including any necessary prescriptions) and keep abreast of any updates to the forecast.
Keep calm and carry on!