The central Florida Attractions Area is now under a Tropical Storm Watch ahead of Hurricane Ian.
A tropical storm watch typically means that tropical storm conditions (heavy rains and winds of 39-73 MPH or higher) are possible within 48 hours — however in this case, the National Weather Service is currently estimating peak winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. This forecast may change (for the better or for the worse) depending on the eventual track of the storm.
Here’s the specific forecast for the area around Walt Disney World Resort, based on the current thinking from the National Weather Service.
Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 8am. High near 84. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 74. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 82. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Source: NWS Melbourne 11:15AM Sep 26
And here’s the full text of the watch for the portion of the state that includes Walt Disney World, Universal, and Sea World.
Ian Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL092022
1110 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive
runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
As if 11:50 Monday morning, none of the area theme parks had announced any delays, cancellations, or closures.
Keep calm and carry on!