The National Hurricane Center says there’s a 20% chance that a disorganized area of storms east of the Bahamas will get its act together sometime later this week and become a tropical system.
It’s important to note that the yellow region shown on the map above is not the traditional “cone of uncertainty” that depicts the expected path of the center of a tropical storm or hurricane. Rather it is the Graphical Outlook product which indicates the general area over the next five days in which development could occur if the conditions are right.
Here’s the 8AM Sunday outlook from the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slight development is possible over the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
The early thinking on this system is that even though ocean temperatures are rather warm right now it’s unlikely that this will have the environment or the time needed to be a major player in the tropical season; that said, it is expected to bring a considerable amount of tropical moisture to the attractions area.
The earliest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center, above, shows about 2″ of rain for the attractions area over the next seven days. It’s expected this would be revised once we get a better idea of the strength and track of Invest 94L. In the event that the system does develop into a full-fledged tropical system, it would be named Chantal.
As we always emphasize this early on, it’s far too early to know what (if anything) will develop out of this system. So there’s no need to panic (or really even worry just a little bit) about it. Enjoy your week at the attractions, and check back in midweek.