The little-storm-that-could… did. Despite having been knocked down to as low as a 10% chance of development, that rag-tag group of thunderstorms in the Atlantic near the Bahamas has managed to churn itself up into TD 3.
This thing is still facing a lot of headwinds (literally and figuratively) which will severely inhibit its attempts to grow into Tropical Storm Chantal. The 5PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps the center offshore and wind speeds below 35 MPH (with the exception of a few gusts.
NHC products show only the smallest of chances… 5% – 10%… of even seeing tropical storm force winds on the east coast of Florida.
Rain, on the other hand, is a distinct possibility. The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast rainfall map for the state shows heavier rainfall throughout the week.
We expect that will be adjusted further upward on the eastern edge of the state, as the NHC expects anywhere from one to three inches of rainfall across the state’s eastern coast through Tuesday.
Here’s the full text of the NHC advisory.
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 78.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant increase in strength is anticipated, and the depression is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.