Pay no attention to the cyclone behind the curtain.
While the tropics were dangling a shiny 90% development chance of that system that’s been sitting over south Florida today, it was not-so-secretly cooking up something further out in the ocean.
That system out in the Atlantic that we told you about yesterday is now Tropical Storm Dorian. She is expected to encounter generally favorable conditions over the coming days and may be near hurricane strength as she approaches the Lesser Antilles around Tuesday. After that… well who knows. We’re far too early to know if it’ll keep that path and head towards Florida. People will likely soon start posting panic-casts based on long-range runs of the Euro and GFS models… and those model runs change as often as most people (hopefully) change underwear. The sensible action right now is to not panic… to keep an eye on it… and to await further information in the early part of the upcoming week. Nobody knows right now if this will impact the Attractions or not.
Closer to home and more immediately, the thing over south Florida is still expected to strengthen, but is also still expected to move well away from us. And that little-blob-that-could over the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to an area to watch with a slight chance of development, but is expected to be pretty landlocked and likely won’t be much unless something changes.
Below you’ll find the official NHC advisory on Dorian as well as the full text of the Tropical Outlook.
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 49.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Barbados. 1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from the southern Florida peninsula northeastward into the Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of the central Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Surface observations along with satellite imagery and radar data indicate that a low pressure area is located near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before tropical cyclone formation can occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.