Meet Dorian. Don’t Panic.

Tropical Overview

Pay no attention to the cyclone behind the curtain.

While the tropics were dangling a shiny 90% development chance of that system that’s been sitting over south Florida today, it was not-so-secretly cooking up something further out in the ocean.

That system out in the Atlantic that we told you about yesterday is now Tropical Storm Dorian. She is expected to encounter generally favorable conditions over the coming days and may be near hurricane strength as she approaches the Lesser Antilles around Tuesday. After that… well who knows. We’re far too early to know if it’ll keep that path and head towards Florida. People will likely soon start posting panic-casts based on long-range runs of the Euro and GFS models… and those model runs change as often as most people (hopefully) change underwear. The sensible action right now is to not panic… to keep an eye on it… and to await further information in the early part of the upcoming week. Nobody knows right now if this will impact the Attractions or not.

Closer to home and more immediately, the thing over south Florida is still expected to strengthen, but is also still expected to move well away from us. And that little-blob-that-could over the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to an area to watch with a slight chance of development, but is expected to be pretty landlocked and likely won’t be much unless something changes.

Below you’ll find the official NHC advisory on Dorian as well as the full text of the Tropical Outlook.

Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 49.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected
to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical
cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of
Barbados.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from the
southern Florida peninsula northeastward into the Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
primarily over the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of the
central Florida peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week
while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of
the southeastern United States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Surface observations along with satellite imagery and radar data
indicate that a low pressure area is located near the upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization.  However, the
system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western
Louisiana before tropical cyclone formation can occur.  Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains
to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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