Thursday Morning: Models Begin to Agree… Sort Of. Track Nudges Slightly South Again. Prepare, but Don’t Panic.

The latest runs of the various forecast models are starting to agree in one aspect. They all expect that once Dorian hits, it’ll then go north-ish. But they still can’t quite figure out where it’ll hit. It’s like knowing that a car in front of you is slowing down to turn… but they don’t use their signal so you’re guessing when and where.

Here are some recent runs of the big ones. You’ll see they all hint at a northward turn… but can’t decide where to start. By the way… don’t be decived by the apparent “speed” of the European model. It has less hour-by-hour deatail, so the loop just “looks” faster. All three animations cover the same timeframe… late Sunday through late Thursday. Model graphics via Tropical Tidbits.

Our story for the Attractions area remains the same. We continue to prepare for the possibility … NOT the certainty … of a strong Category 3 storm (sustained winds 125 MPH with higher gusts) coming ashore along the east Coast (current thinking is north of Vero Beach) and then weakening to Category 1 (85 MPH sustained winds with higher gusts) as it approaches us (current thinking is near Legoland very early Tuesday morning).

The track continues to change, and it’s still too soon to know for sure what will happen. You don’t have to make final storm preps today… or even necessarily tomorrow. The “earliest reasonable” arrival time for Tropical Storm force winds is early Sunday (with late Sunday night being more likely). And you may never have to make final preps at all for this storm. Either way, we expect a good deal of rainfall, a 70% chance of tropical storm winds, and a 30% chance of hurricane force winds in the Attractions area. But some early preps are prudent while we try to figure this out. You’re going to want to make early preparations just in case. And remember… sometimes you need to be creative. Need sandbags for a flood-prone doorway but can’t find them? What about bags of potting soil? Can’t find water at the megamart? Think about going where people don’t normally think about buying water… Convenience Stores… Office Supply stores? Or heck, if it comes down to the last minute, bottle your own. If you’ve worked for more than five minutes in the hospitality industry you have no doubt amassed dozens of logo-laden promotional cups. Fill ’em up, cover them with plastic wrap, and put them on the counter. Make your own ice and bag it up in the freezer… you can use it regardless of the storm’s path. I take those oval-ish plastic tubs you get Chinese food in and make big ice blocks using them. They stack great in the freezer and don’t melt as quickly as cubes do in the cooler.

And as always, don’t panic. We’re gonna get through this one, just like we got through all the ones before! New tracks are due at 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM. We’ll dissect them with you as they arrive.

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