The National Weather Service routinely issues a product called the Area Forecast Discussion (also known as the AFD). It’s sort of “shop talk” for weather geeks, produced by the meteorologists at the local National Weather Service to explain some of the factors that went into creating the forecast that you see every day. With the impending visit from Dorian, we thought you might be interested in reading through a few relevant excerpts from tonight’s AFD, even though you may need to decipher a couple of “insider” abbreviations that you’re not normally used to. We’ve bolded a few points of interest.
DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED TO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND CONTINUES GO GRIND WEST TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE. A CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS HE APPROACHES THE FL EAST COAST MON/MON NIGHT. A TURN TO THE NW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE FL PENINSULA AFTER HE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE TREASURE COAST THE MID/UPR RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING DORIAN DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY SAT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR COASTLINE. WHILE A DAY 4 LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST (AVG TRACK ERROR ARND 150MI), IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED HURRICANE EVENT DUE TO THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW, AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES DORIAN WILL TAKE TWO DAYS TO TRAVEL FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS HE APPROACHES THE FL EAST COAST. THE SITUATION IS PARTICULARLY SERIOUS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL FL AS THE FORECAST TRACK PLACES THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER DORIAN'S POWERFUL WIND AND TORRENTIAL PRECIP FIELDS LATE MONDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE NOT ONLY TO THE WIND AND RAIN, BUT TO DEADLY STORM SURGE AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO FLORIDA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC AND YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE. REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND MAKE SURE NECESSARY SUPPLIES ARE FULLY STOCKED.