The 11PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center has shifted the track just barely … almost imperceptibly … back to the west. This is not surprising, and not necessarily a harbinger of doom for the Attractions area; but it’s a good reminder that Dorian is big, bumbling, and is going to do what it wants as it lumbers across the Bahamas. Central Florida remains within the cone of uncertainty, and some models (not necessarily the most reliable ones) are still hinting that we’re not fully in the clear. The NHC speaks to this in their discussion of the storm:
BY LATE SUNDAY, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, AND DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON HOW CLOSE THE STORM WILL TRACK TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LATEST HWRF RUN HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TAKES DORIAN ACROSS THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 18Z GFS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS SHIFTED WEST CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK, SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THAT FORECAST WAS MADE. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OR EVEN A LANDFALL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. SINCE THE UPDATED TRACK WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED FOR FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.
Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect southeast of the Attractions area, including Vero Beach.
Significant impacts remain possible for an extended period of time on Disney’s Castaway Cay. While the island currently appears to be just outside the forecast path of the worst of the wind, there is a possibility of storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet based on some estimates.
1. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DEVASTATING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ARE EXPECTED ON THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. 2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SINCE DORIAN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE, KNOW IF THEY ARE IN A HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE, AND LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Next updated path is due at 5AM. Keep calm and carry on! More info to come.