The 11AM Sunday advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Dorian continues to be a beast with maximum winds of 180 MPH, stronger than Katrina or Andrew. A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch are now in effect for Brevard County, home of Kennedy Space Center and Port Canaveral. Vero Beach remains under a Tropical Storm Warning. An inland Tropical Storm Watch is also now in effect within Osceola and Polk Counties.
Here inland, those who are in the attractions area are advised to make any final preparations today (Sunday) in order to prepare for the possibility of winds of 39-57 MPH as the storm approaches the Florida coast. This wind estimate is based on earlier storm information and may be revised upwards based on the 11AM track.
From the NHC:
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ONLY A FEW MILES WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CONSENSUS TRACKS HAVE SHOWN THE USUAL VARIABILITY TO THE RIGHT OR TO THE LEFT FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD OFFSHORE BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN SIZE OF THE HURRICANE, A HURRICANE WATCH AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW LANDFALL, USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE INTENSE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ITS DANGEROUS WINDS CLOSER TO OR ONTO THE COAST.
For the Bahamas, the core of the storm appears to be passing north of Disney’s Castaway Cay, however waves and storm surge of up to 23 feet are a real possibility for an extended period of time.
The National Weather Service cautions that updates to the watches and warnings may still be needed depending upon when Dorian makes “the turn.” If the turn to the north is late,
Key messages from the NHC:
1. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL AFFECT THE ABACO ISLANDS TODAY. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE EYE. THESE CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, AND EFFORTS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY THERE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. 2. STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DORIAN NEAR OR OVER THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
Next Track is Due at 5PM. Keep calm and carry on!