The National Hurricane Center is watching a potential tropical cyclone that may be able to get its act together enough to become Tropical Storm and might wind up off the coast of Florida by the weekend. Still too early to peg an exact path and exact strength, but the earliest thinking of most models is that it will stay at no worse than tropical storm strength. Right now, there is no reason to believe this will be Dorian 2.0.
More from the NHC:
The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast. With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. 2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system.
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