Potential Tropical System’s Path Shifts Fully Offshore; Some Coastal Impacts Still Possible. Don’t Panic.

The track of would-be Humberto continues to shift offshore, minimizing the potential impacts to the Florida mainland. Some costal impacts remain possible.

From the NHC:

Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt.   A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic.  The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within
the next 24 hours and will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later
today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the
northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could still bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Florida east coast. Residents there should monitor
the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.

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