50% Chance of Development in the Gulf. Don’t Panic.

After a relatively quiet period in the waters surrounding the Florida peninsula, the tropics are showing signs of springing back to life once again. It’s a subtle reminder that even though we’re thinking of pumpkins, scarecrows, and basic coffee, Nature is still HBIC and hurricane season lasts through November 30th.

A low pressure system just off the coast of Mexico has about a 50-50 shot of turning into something tropical (or maybe even subtropical, but let’s not ruin what we have by trying to label it). The Hurricane Hunters may fly into it later today to see what’s up. Any development is expected to be slow to occur, and the system would meander generally toward the northeast. The forecast models are having a tough time putting a fix on this one so far. The European model has it almost completely disorganized around the Alabama/Mississippi border by the weekend. The ‘murican model on the other hand tracks it closer to America’s Armpit the Big Bend of Florida around the same time, still relatively disorganized.

Unless something changes, we’re not expecting a major wind threat anywhere in the southeast with this one based on the current models. Heavy rain is certainly a possibility wherever it tracks. The Attractions area is already seeing forecasts of increased rain chances later in the week, peaking at 60% on Saturday.

More to come, more to watch. Keep calm and Carry On!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of
low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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