The Storm Prediction Center says there is a chance of strong and isolated severe thunderstorms on Thursday. They’ve issued a “Marginal” risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather, which corresponds to isolated severe storms which are generally limited in duration, coverage, and/or intensity. The tornado risk is minimal (less than 2%); the risk of damaging winds or quarter-sized hail within 25 miles is a bit greater but still relatively low… between 5% and 14%.
Based on the latest runs of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh weather models, the first wave of storms could pass through the Disney area around 4AM, with a followup band around 8AM. That timing, of course, can change. While the severe risk is relatively low, it’s not nonexistent. It’s wise to make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and to make sure that at least one of them will wake you up if a warning is issued while you’re asleep. That can include Wireless Emergency Alerts, a NOAA Weather Radio with alerting function, or severe weather apps such as Florida Storms, Weather Radio, or an app by one of the local television stations. We have a few recommendations on our Resources page.
Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, High… what’s the difference? Learn about the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook products and how they’re issued by reading our two part series:
Understanding Severe Weather Outlooks: Part One | Part Two