We’re well on our way to having Tropical Storm Arthur form prior to the official June 1st start of Hurricane Season. A tropical depression has formed, as expected, off the east coast of Florida. It’s expected to become a (sub)tropical storm by early Sunday. The storm is expected to move away from Florida (though possibly creating strong surf and a rip current risk) but may graze North Carolina. A tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of the North Carolina coast, and this is expected to be more of a rain event for them than a wind event. The storm system is also well north of Disney’s Castaway Cay.
302 WTNT31 KNHC 162038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * New River Inlet to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore, but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi