20% Chance of Tropical Development by Midweek. Don’t Panic.

A few would-be tropical blobs in the Gulf of Mexico have a shot at organizing this weekend but are more likely to develop once they pass over the northern Florida peninsula and move out into the Atlantic. From there, it is hoped the system would pose no threat to Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says the unsettled area in the far north Gulf will likely cross into Florida around America’s Armpit the Big Bend area on Monday, and would emerge around the Carolina coast by Wednesday. Overall, the five-day development chance is 20%. The forecast models right now aren’t necessarily in agreement on it… the American model isn’t very bullish at all on development and instead has disorganized rain, whereas the European model shows closed low pressure developing rather quickly once it hits the Carolinas. Either way, Florida isn’t expecting much except rain based on the current thinking. The bulk of the system.. including the heaviest rain… would be north of the attractions area.

From the National Hurricane Center’s 8PM Outlook:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some 
slight development of this system is possible before the trough 
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday.  The 
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore 
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Keep calm and carry on!

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