Here’s the updated thinking from the local National Weather Service office, as of around 5:30 PM on Tuesday:
Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL052021
532 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021
This product covers East Central Florida
**OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT, WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LAKE COUNTY**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and
Southern Lake
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 220 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL
- 25.8N 83.0W
- Storm Intensity 70 mph
- Movement North or 350 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa are beginning to be felt across
east-central Florida late this afternoon as outer rain bands move into
the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region. As Elsa continues
moving north, nearly parallel to the Florida Gulf Coast, rain bands
will increase in frequency across east-central Florida this evening
and overnight into Wednesday morning.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Lake County. This is
where the highest potential exists for sustained tropical storm force
winds up to 40 mph, especially from Groveland to Leesburg westward,
including Lady Lake and The Villages. Stronger wind gusts to well
above tropical storm force are most likely across this area.
Winds will gust to tropical storm force in most rain bands and
squalls, and 50 to 60 mph in the most intense squalls. Conditions will
become more favorable for tornadoes in these outer rain bands tonight
into Wednesday morning, with the greatest threat for tornadoes being
across the inland areas west of Interstate 95.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for parts of central and south Florida,
with another Tornado Watch likely to be issued for central and north
Florida later this evening - that continues into the overnight.
A Flood Watch has been issued for Lake, Seminole, Orange and inland
Volusia Counties. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected in the
watch area, with isolated amounts to around 6 inches. Outside of the
watch area, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected, with local amounts
to around 4 inches. The highest totals are expected closest to the
track of Elsa's center, across and adjacent to Lake County.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are unfolding across across
east-central Florida, particularly Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia
Counties, where a Flood Watch has been issued. Remain well guarded
against flood waters having possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
East Central Florida. Remain well sheltered from hazardous wind
having possible impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are unfolding across East Central
Florida. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having
possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.
During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.
Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.
If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
Rodriguez