Fred Fumbles Along as (Eventual) Grace Grows; Don’t Panic

The track of Tropical Depression/Storm Fred continues a westward nudge which should keep the center of the relatively disorganized storm away from Central Florida. On the current track, the Attractions area should even avoid most of the rain and wind impacts. The Weather Prediction Center currently expects Orlando to receive less than two inches of rain from Fred, and the National Hurricane Center predicts a less than 5% chance of sustained tropical storm force winds in the Orlando area. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the Orlando area generally in a “marginal” risk of severe weather over the weekend as a result of the broader effects of the system, meaning a low-end risk level 1 out of 5. As always, the system should still be monitored for any changes in path and intensity… and keep an eye/ear out for any warnings related to spinoff thunderstorms. But you can take some solace that it’s more and more likely we can soon declare this storm to be “definitely not our Dino.”

Further east, there’s Tropical Depression 7… likely to become Tropical Storm Grace at some point in the next few days. The very tip of the five-day cone currently just barely comes into view along the southern tip of the Florida peninsula by midweek next week. It’s still much too far in advance to know anything certain about the path and strength of the storm, but long range models hint that Florida could generally be in the path of the storm sometime late in the upcoming week. Don’t read anything more into those words than exactly what they say: Florida could generally be in the path of the storm. We don’t know for sure that it will be… and if it is, we don’t know exactly which part of the state would be, nor do we know if it’ll be anything stronger than a Tropical Storm at that point. We probably still have about a week between Grace and us, if she even shows up at all. Keep calm and carry on!

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