The path of what could become Tropical Storm Alex has shifted slightly southward. The National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service have upgrades the prior tropical storm watches to tropical storm warnings. It should be noted that the upgrade to a warning is more of a function of timing than of an evolving danger; with tropical systems, watches are issued for conditions expected within 48 hours, whereas warnings are for conditions expected within 36 hours.
The primary information for the Attractions Area remains essentially the same as before:
- This won’t be a major hurricane. It probably won’t even become a hurricane at all.
- This might bring some heavy rain, but the worst of the rain will likely be well south of the Attractions area.
- We’ll have to keep an eye out on Saturday for possible tornadoes, but the risk seems relatively low at the moment.
- Don’t panic. This isn’t Irma.
Given what’s expected for the Attractions Area itself (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld), you’d be forgiven for thinking this is just the weather forecast for any given day in the summer…
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Forecast via NWS
There’s still a possibility of heavy rain, gusty winds, and possibly even a stray tornado (though that risk is minimal). The current thinking from the Weather Prediction Center has Orlando just inside the area that could receive more than two inches of rain in some spots.
Elsewhere around the region…
Osceola County (just south of Disney), via NWS:
521 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Kissimmee
- Yeehaw Junction
- Harmony
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph in squalls
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
higher amounts
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
Polk County (home of Legoland Florida), via NWS:
541 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Lakeland
- Winter Haven
- Bartow
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
higher amounts
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
Brevard County (home to Kennedy Space Center and Port Canaveral), via NWS:
521 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge
- Playalinda Beach
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph in squalls
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
amounts
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
Indian River County (home to Disney’s Vero Beach Resort), via NWS:
521 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Vero Beach
- Sebastian
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 4-8 inches, with locally higher
amounts
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
Keep calm and carry on!