The National Hurricane Center now has its eyes on two separate areas in the Atlantic which have at least a small potential of becoming a tropical system.
The first system, closest to the U.S., is fighting land, wind shear, and the Saharan Dust Layer as it approaches. The 8PM advisory gives it only a 10% chance of development into a proper tropical storm, but it’s expected to dump a lot of rain across the Caribbean as it approaches.
The second system, off the coast of Africa, is looking a bit more promising for development, but it’s way too far away to know what, if anything, it will do. Forecast models are witchcraft this far out, so anything you see online tomorrow showing a z0mgscane off the coast of Florida 14 days from now should not be tossed lightly aside but rather thrown with great force. NHC pegs this one at a 20% chance of development sometime in the next five days… but it, too, faces some unfavorable conditions along the way.
So, as always… nothing to panic about… or even worry about… at this point. Keep aware of the tropics, but don’t cancel your vacation.
Here’s the full text of the advisory:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized. This system is expected to move west-northwestward with no significant development, producing locally heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.