Two Areas of Interest in the Tropics. Don’t Panic.

The National Hurricane Center now has its eyes on two separate areas in the Atlantic which have at least a small potential of becoming a tropical system.

The first system, closest to the U.S., is fighting land, wind shear, and the Saharan Dust Layer as it approaches. The 8PM advisory gives it only a 10% chance of development into a proper tropical storm, but it’s expected to dump a lot of rain across the Caribbean as it approaches.

The second system, off the coast of Africa, is looking a bit more promising for development, but it’s way too far away to know what, if anything, it will do. Forecast models are witchcraft this far out, so anything you see online tomorrow showing a z0mgscane off the coast of Florida 14 days from now should not be tossed lightly aside but rather thrown with great force. NHC pegs this one at a 20% chance of development sometime in the next five days… but it, too, faces some unfavorable conditions along the way.

So, as always… nothing to panic about… or even worry about… at this point. Keep aware of the tropics, but don’t cancel your vacation.

Here’s the full text of the advisory:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean Sea remains disorganized. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward with no significant development, producing
locally heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of
the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend,
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and northwestern
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde.  Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days.  However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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