The twin would-be tropical systems in the Atlantic continue to be scrappy but survive.
The system closest to the US continues to produce rain over Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. It is due to move more toward Florida later in the week and conditions are at least partially favorable (10%) for longterm development. Nonetheless, no major strengthening is forecast… with most tropical models showing nothing stronger than a Tropical Storm. It’s still too early to determine where it will truly wind up, though early thinking is it could skirt the coast much like Tropical Depression 3 did.
Further east, the NHC now has a system currently a good distance off the coast of Africa potentially developing into a tropical depression by the weekend. There’s a 40% chance of that, but we still don’t know where it will go or how strong it’ll be; forecast models this far out are somewhere between voodoo and doodoo.
Even further east, another big wave is coming off the coast of Africa. We’ll see what that one does.
So as always… don’t panic… just be aware. As the days go by, all will become clear.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.