The National Hurricane Center is growing more bullish that the storm system in the mid/east Atlantic might turn into a tropical depression early next week. There’s now a 70% chance of development for the system as it moves into an area much more favorable for development. Forecast models are still all over the place (and admittedly far, far too early to be accurate). The American model pegs it as a hefty tropical system remaining offshore but hugging the east coast about 10 days from now. The European model has it dissipating before even making it to the states. Everything is still an educated guess at best for now… besides we’ve got earlier fish to fry.
Before whatever that system is becomes whatever it becomes, we’ve got an earlier system to contend with. And all indications are, that the early one is no big deal. At this point, there’s about a 10% chance that the system currently sputtering through the Caribbean turns into even “rain with a name,” much less a hurricane. Having said that, there is a good chance for some significant rainfall in south Florida. The Weather Prediction Center’s hydrology products are suggesting a “marginal” risk of significant rainfall in south Florida over the next few days. And some early guidance suggests upwards of 5″ of rain in some areas. Here in Central Florida, probably closer to 2 inches… which is par for the course for the entire summer “wet season.”
So to recap: don’t panic… maybe bring an umbrella or poncho through the weekend… and check in with us every now and then while we watch that “whatever” in the Atlantic.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this disturbance during the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.