Now that Monday’s 11PM advisory puts the attractions area juuuuust barely within the cone of uncertainty, it’s becoming clear that Dorian is becoming a storm for central Florida to watch. To be abundantly clear: this does not guarantee that a hurricane… or even a tropical storm… is absolutely going to be bearing down on the Attractions area. It means that the models are starting to come into agreement that this storm COULD have impacts on our area. But it’s also imperative to note that the NHC indicates that there is a high level of uncertainty in their forecast. It could verify… or it could be a bust.
We’ll spare you a fluffy write-up and just throw some specifics at you:
- As mentioned above, and in other posts, there is a good deal of uncertainty in forecasts beyond five days… and really beyond three days. And even though we’ve gotten better at knowing where a storm is going, intensity forecasts still prove tricky.
- This is NOT a call to go raid the store for bottled water or slim jims. We are not at the “action” point yet… and we may never be for this storm. It’s too early to know.
- Current timing indicates that if it comes our way, it would likely be a weekend storm. Or it might veer off. So nobody knows.
So, even a relatively reasonable person might ask “what the hell am I supposed to do with that information or lack thereof?” Simple… pay attention. We watch all storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic. This one has now raised one of our eyebrows. But we’re not yet in full Kermit Flail mode on this one, and we may never be. Your job for the rest of the week is to check in for official data from the National Hurricane Center at least once a day to make sure you have the latest updated information.
(And yes, that other thing that hovered over Florida for so long is now a tropical depression and moving well away. Not our storm.)