The 5PM Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps the center of Dorian offshore… maybe even by a few miles more than the last advisory. That’s good. The attractions area is no longer directly inside the cone of uncertainty. That seems good, but please don’t let it lull you into a false sense of complete security. Things are better than your nagging storm anxiety might try to make you believe, but we still have some impacts to contend with.
“But we’re not in the cone.” Correct. But, as we’ve said before, the cone of uncertainty represents one thing very simply… the most likely path of the very center of the storm. The line down the center, with the hurricane icons, is the actual forecast path of the center. The cone around it represents an average historical forecast error; even if the lines are wrong then the center should still be within that cone 66% of the time based on their historic success rate. That obviously leaves another 33%+ outside the cone where the storm surprised them. Obviously the less time between today and the date being forecast, they’re more likely to be right, so the 66% envelope is much smaller. The storm is coming in relatively soon, so no more attractions in the cone.
BUT!
This is a BIG storm. Just because the center is well offshore and the attractions are out of the cone, it does NOT mean no impacts for the attractions. Take a look at the image below. We’ve overlaid current (5PM) winds over the current position of the storm. Red is hurricane force, orange is severe storm force, and yellow is tropical storm force.
The storm has been undergoing an eyewall replacement, which means the wind field is getting a bit wider. So if you imagine those circles moving up the path to say 2AM Wednesday when the storm’s center is offshore of Cape Canaveral… you can see why the central Attractions area remains under a tropical storm warning.
Tuesday begins the main event for the attractions area. Here are specifics from the National Weather Service…
Orange County (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld):
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Orlando - Apopka - Christmas * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Northern Brevard County (Kennedy Space Center, Port Canaveral):
518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Titusville - Cocoa * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday evening - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Large areas with power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins late this afternoon - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to completion before driving conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Polk County (Legoland):
455 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lakeland - Winter Haven - Bartow * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Osceola County
518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Kissimmee - Yeehaw Junction - Harmony * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday morning - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Southern Lake County
518 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Clermont - Mascotte * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Near tropical storm force winds - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Key messages from NHC:
1. DEVASTATING WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE EYE. 2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF DORIAN'S CENTER. WATER LEVELS COULD BEGIN TO RISE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST NORTH CAROLINA. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.
Next updated track is due at 11PM. It’s been a long, admittedly nerve-wracking track of Hurricane Dorian. We’ll finally be through with him very soon! Keep calm and carry on!