5AM Tuesday: Track Steady… Awaiting Central Florida Impacts Today. Don’t Panic.

The 5AM Tuesday advisory still has Dorian nearly stationary over the Bahamas, but that’s expected to change today.

From the NHC:

Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as
steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed.  The global
models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will
develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east
coast of the United States within the next day or so.  Dorian
should respond to these changes by beginning to move
north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later
today.  The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in
forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours.
Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on
the southern side of the trough.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model
consensus.

No major changes to our general thinking of the system’s impacts on Central Florida. Worst of the weather for the attractions should be tonight through Wednesday evening. Read on for specific impacts from the National Weather Service.

Orange County (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld):

514 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

* FLOODING RAIN
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-5 inches, with locally            higher amounts.

* TORNADO
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

Polk County (Legoland):

511 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

* FLOODING RAIN
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
         - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally           higher amounts

* TORNADO
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
         - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

Northern Brevard County (Kennedy Space Center, Port Canaveral):

514 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Wednesday evening

* STORM SURGE
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
         - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
         - Window of concern: through Friday morning

* FLOODING RAIN
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts totaling 10 inches.

* TORNADO
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes 

Osceola County:

514 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph

* FLOODING RAIN
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally            higher amounts.

* TORNADO
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

Southern Lake County:

514 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Clermont
    - Mascotte

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph

* FLOODING RAIN
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally            higher amounts

* TORNADO
     - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
          - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes 

Next cone update at 11AM. Keep calm and carry on!

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