Dorian is weakening, and the track is still nudging eastward. The impacts for the attractions area will still be felt later today and into tomorrow morning, but should be limited to breezy-to-windy conditions and periods of heavy rain. Winds within the central Attractions area are generally expected to be below tropical storm force (though gusts might occasionally hit that threshold). We’ve also had some shear on the side of the storm closest to the Florida coast, which also helps to knock down some of the convection on that side.
That doesn’t mean this isn’t a dangerous storm… only that the inland effects may be a bit lighter than we previously thought.
Tropical storm warnings do remain in effect for part of the attractions area.
We still have about 24-36 hours to go before we’re fully in the clear, but things are looking pretty darn hopeful for our area.
From the NHC:
Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast. The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.
Key messages from the NHC:
1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week.
Next track is due at 5PM. Keep calm and carry on!