![](https://i0.wp.com/meteottractions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-10-18-Tropical-Overview-0800.png?fit=1500%2C1060)
That blob in the Gulf of Mexico just keeps on trying to get its act together. There was still no well-defined center of circulation through the overnight hours, which is why we’re not yet dealing with Tropical Storm Nestor. Regardless of whether it actually gets a name (and it could well be named as a subtropical storm when the hurricane hunters fly through it later this morning), there’s a risk of heavy rainfall, damaging storm surge, and tropical storm force winds along the coast. The core of whatever it is should pass well northwest of the Attractions area.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the offshore waters west of Central Florida, and tropical storm warnings for the coastline itself begin a bit further north.
![](https://i2.wp.com/meteottractions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Alerts-2019-10-18-0800hrs.png?fit=800%2C566)
Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect as far south as the Tampa/St. Pete area, for the risk of storm surge of two to four feet in some places.
![](https://i2.wp.com/meteottractions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Alerts-2019-10-18-0801hrs.png?fit=800%2C566)
A bit further inland, heavy rain is the primary threat, though the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center is that the attractions area will dodge the worst of it.
![](https://i1.wp.com/meteottractions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/3DayRain-2019-10-18.png?fit=800%2C566)
This will be a pretty sloppy storm as far as tropical systems go… not a neatly organized compact hurricane. As a result, the risk of spinoff severe thunderstorms covers a bit more land, with the Attractions area falling in a marginal risk on Saturday (level 1 of 5), or about a 5% chance overall.
![](https://i0.wp.com/meteottractions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-10-18-Categorical-Day-2.png?fit=800%2C566)
Any twitches in the path or strength could modify the impact on our area, but the thinking right now is this is more of a rain and thunderstorm event for central Florida than anything else, with the bulk of the impacts further northwest from us.
Keep calm and carry on!