That blob in the Gulf of Mexico just keeps on trying to get its act together. There was still no well-defined center of circulation through the overnight hours, which is why we’re not yet dealing with Tropical Storm Nestor. Regardless of whether it actually gets a name (and it could well be named as a subtropical storm when the hurricane hunters fly through it later this morning), there’s a risk of heavy rainfall, damaging storm surge, and tropical storm force winds along the coast. The core of whatever it is should pass well northwest of the Attractions area.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the offshore waters west of Central Florida, and tropical storm warnings for the coastline itself begin a bit further north.
Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect as far south as the Tampa/St. Pete area, for the risk of storm surge of two to four feet in some places.
A bit further inland, heavy rain is the primary threat, though the latest thinking from the Weather Prediction Center is that the attractions area will dodge the worst of it.
This will be a pretty sloppy storm as far as tropical systems go… not a neatly organized compact hurricane. As a result, the risk of spinoff severe thunderstorms covers a bit more land, with the Attractions area falling in a marginal risk on Saturday (level 1 of 5), or about a 5% chance overall.
Any twitches in the path or strength could modify the impact on our area, but the thinking right now is this is more of a rain and thunderstorm event for central Florida than anything else, with the bulk of the impacts further northwest from us.
Keep calm and carry on!