The Tropics Aren’t Dead Yet. But Don’t Panic.

It’s cold out (well, FloridaCold™ at least), but Nature would kindly like to assert that Hurricane Season continues through November 30th. Presented for your consideration: a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles away from the Leeward Islands, which the National Hurricane Center now says has a 50% chance of experiencing some tropical development over the coming days.

Unless something major changes, this is not expected to amount to much, nor is it expected to even really head anywhere near the states. But it’s a good reminder that the season ain’t over until it’s over. And even then, it ain’t always over. We refer you to the two storms which actually formed late enough to cross calendar years (Hurricane Alice, 12/30/1954 – 1/6/1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta, 12/30/2005 – 1/7/2006) or any of the 82 other off-season tropical cyclones that have occurred in the Atlantic basin since records began in 1851.

Here’s the latest Tropical Outlook from the NHC:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure about 500 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and strong winds on its northeast side. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form during the next two or three days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic.  The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal
system after midweek and further development is not expected by that
time.  For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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