Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday 12/17

SPC Marginal Risk

The Storm Prediction Center is advising of a Marginal Risk (risk level 1 of 5) for severe storms throughout the Attractions area today as a cold front passes through. The same storm system was responsible for tornadoes and even a few deaths in Alabama overnight, but the air in Central Florida is expected to be slightly more stable as the storms pass through. Nonetheless, it’s been a rocky morning even in the Florida panhandle which remains under a “slight” risk (level 2 of 5).

The Marginal risk area which covers the Attractions includes a chance for “all modes” of severe weather, including hail (5% to 14% chance), damaging winds (5% to 14% chance), and even a possible tornado (2% to 4% chance).

The local National Weather Service office notes that while a widespread outbreak is not expected today, the storms that do form have the potential to be a bit rough-n-tumble:

Scattered lightning storms are expected to develop during the mid
to late afternoon over interior counties ahead of a cold front.
The storms will move quickly toward the northeast around 30 mph
and will increase in coverage into the evening as the front nears.
Cold temperatures aloft and increasing wind fields should produce
a few strong storms with gusty winds. One or two storms may
produce damaging winds near 60 mph and small hail.

As a reminder, November and December are Florida’s sneaky season for severe weather… storms are less numerous but those that do form are more prone to spin off tornadoes that, historically, are stronger than those that might form in the spring. As always, it’s wise to stay weather aware.

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