Isaias to Teeter Between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Strength as it Skirts the Coast. Don’t Panic.

The 5PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that Isaias has weakened to tropical storm strength following a 1-2-3 punch from land interaction, wind shear, and dry air. But it’s expected to pass through more favorable conditions as it continues to approach Florida and will likely once again become a hurricane by the time it reaches south Florida. Then, as it rides up the coastline, it will likely weaken again. The storm would likely be at Tropical Storm strength during its closest approach to the Attractions area. As is always the case with these coast-skirting storms, a jog 25 miles in either direction would make a significant difference in the impacts we’d feel. The tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central Attractions area, with a Hurricane Warning along the Space Coast and Treasure Coast (including Disney’s Vero Beach Resort, Kennedy Space Center, and Port Canaveral). Kennedy Space Center Visitors Complex is closed Sunday in anticipation of the storm’s arrival. In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Beaufort County, SC (home to Disney’s Hilton Head Island Resort).

Here are the latest comprehensive impact overviews from the local National Weather Service office:

For Orange County, including Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld:

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
520 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orlando
    - Apopka
    - Christmas

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Sunday afternoon
          until early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      localized flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
          become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
          bridge closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - https://www.ready.gov
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts
        - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

For Brevard County, including Kennedy Space Center and Port Canaveral:

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
520 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020


...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Titusville
    - Cocoa

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Sunday morning until
          Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
      to 110 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
          2 hurricane force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
          having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
          structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
          destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
          Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
        - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
          roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
          be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
          storm surge flooding.
        - ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
          outside.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      localized flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          localized flooding from heavy rain.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
          currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
          become swollen and overflow in spots.
        - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
          usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
          of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
          drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
          become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
          bridge closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - https://www.ready.gov
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts
        - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

Keep calm and carry on!

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