A somewhat unsettled Sunday has brought rain showers to the Central Florida attractions area, and they’re part of a larger system that has at least a small chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next few days. As this morning’s and afternoon’s rains came from east to west, we began to notice a small area of circulation trying to form on the radar, a little to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee. Note the Ferris wheel effect on the animated image below, centered roughly between Sarasota, Fort Pierce, Fort Myers, and Belle Glade.
The National Hurricane Center had already been watching the area while it was offshore, and says that it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression as it emerges off the west coast of the state and enters the Gulf of Mexico. After that, conditions quickly become unfavorable for the system to develop any further. The Gulf already has its hands full watching Tropical Storm Beta, so the news that not much is expected out of this system is certainly welcome.
Here’s the latest thinking from NHC:
A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Nothing to write home about… but another interesting blip in our absolutely calm and totally normal hurricane season. Keep calm and carry on!