Eyeing a Tropical U-Turn with Small Chance of Development. Don’t Panic.

Yesterday we told you about a little tropical spin showing northwest of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. Today, a separate but related system in southeastern Florida is showing some limited potential for development. The area of unsettled weather covers not only southeastern Florida but also portions of the Bahamas. It is forecast to drift southward toward Cuba for a couple of days before pulling a U-Turn and drifting back northward. Once it arrives near the Florida Keys, there’s a 20% chance it could become a tropical depression. Here are the key messages from the National Hurricane Center:

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located over 
southeastern Florida, the central Bahamas, and the Straits of 
Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is 
forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba 
during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on 
Thursday through Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become 
marginally conducive for development by Thursday and Friday when the 
system is forecast to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall can be expected 
across portions of extreme southeastern Florida and the Florida Keys 
this afternoon and tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and 
Wednesday. For more information on this disturbance, see forecast 
products issued by your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Keep calm and carry on!

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