Dorian just can’t seem to get moving. It has spent most of the night essentially completely stationary in the Bahamas. Still, it is expected to begin moving soon and make the northward trek that has long been promised. The core of the storm is still expected to remain offshore. The good news is the track has shifted ever so slightly east and the National Weather Service has adjusted its expected impacts for the attractions area downward just a bit with wind speeds slightly lower than what they thought around 5PM.
County by county from the National Weather Service:
Orange County (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld):
1114 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Orlando
- Apopka
- Christmas
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to
73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force due to possible forecast changes in track,
size, or intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-5 inches, with locally
higher amounts to 8 inches.
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Northern Brevard County (Kennedy Space Center, Port Canaveral):
1114 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Titusville
- Cocoa
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning
until Wednesday evening
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 74 to
110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force due to possible forecast changes in
track, size, or intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins late this evening
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 6 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to
completion before driving conditions become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with local
amounts to 10 inches.
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for moderate
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Polk County (Legoland):
1058 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Lakeland
- Winter Haven
- Bartow
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Southern Lake County:
1114 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Clermont
- Mascotte
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts.
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Osceola County:
1114 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Kissimmee
- Yeehaw Junction
- Harmony
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to
73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force due to possible forecast changes in track,
size, or intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
higher amounts to 6 inches.
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
Some thoughts on the movement (or lack thereof) from the NHC:
THE REASON THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE IS BECAUSE IT IS CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS WEAK FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL AMPLIFY. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DORIAN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CORE OF DORIAN OFFSHORE, BUT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT, AND THAT LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, DORIAN IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ALONG A PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DORIAN SHOULD SLOWLY LOSE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND PERHAPS DRIER AIR. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT TRACKS VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Key messages:
1. DEVASTATING WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER. 2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF DORIAN'S CENTER. WATER LEVELS COULD BEGIN TO RISE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG WINDS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.
Next updated track is due at 5AM. Keep calm and carry on!