Steady as she goes. The 11PM Sunday Advisory from the National Hurricane Center does not provide any substantive changes from the 5PM version in terms of impacts to the central Attractions area, so we’ll refer you to our area impact statements in that advisory.
There’s still a good likelihood of tropical storm force winds throughout the central Attractions area as early as midday Monday (but more likely and in earnest on early Tuesday). The storm is expected to still be generally east-southeast of the attractions area by Tuesday evening, but then step on the gas into Wednesday.
Tonight’s vigil for meteorologists is watching to see when the storm makes that turn to the north. If it’s “late,” then it could mean more substantial impacts for the Florida coastline. So when is it going to finally make the turn? It all depends on that high pressure ridge and when it finally weakens and moves away. From the NHC:
DORIAN IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DORIAN TO SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AND PERHAPS STALL, BEFORE IT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THIS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION WILL LIKELY BE DEVASTATING TO THE GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS SINCE IT WOULD PROLONG THE CATASTROPHIC WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL OVER THOSE AREAS. THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TURN IS VERY CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE DORIAN WILL GET TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL, THE TRACK MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CORE OF DORIAN VERY NEAR, BUT OFFSHORE, OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS, WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE LOWEST ERRORS. IT IS ONCE AGAIN EMPHASIZED THAT ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW LANDFALL, USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE INTENSE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND ITS DANGEROUS WINDS CLOSER TO OR ONTO THE FLORIDA COAST.
Key messages:
1. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL AFFECT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE EYE. 2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DORIAN NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AND LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
The next updated cone is expected to be issued at 5AM. Keep calm and carry on! And remember, wrap up any outdoor preparations by midday Monday.