The 5PM Sunday track for Hurricane Dorian is in.
Here are the extrapolated impacts in the Attractions area:
Central Attractions Area (Universal/SeaWorld/WDW) and Legoland: 50% to 80% chance of tropical storm force winds, specifically 39-57 MPH in the theme parks area, with 58-73 MPH winds likely just east of Orlando. The earliest reasonable arrival time of these winds is Monday at 2PM, but Tuesday at 8AM is more likely. Any changes to the track could cause changes to this forecast. Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Orange, Lake, Osceola and Polk Counties, including WDW, Universal, Legoland, and SeaWorld. Residents should finish any outdoor preparedness measures prior to midday Monday. Any westward wobble in the track could increase wind speeds in the area.
Space Coast including Kennedy Space Center and Port Canaveral: Hurricane force winds of 74-110 MPH are possible. Storm surge flooding greater than 6 feet is possible. The center of the storm is still expected to pass offshore but uncomfortably close to land, so any wobble to the west could result in significantly more severe impacts. Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are now in effect for Brevard County, including KSC and Port Canaveral.
Castaway Cay: Based on Radar and Satellite, Disney’s private island should have avoided the worst of the winds as Dorian is passing well north. However, 15-23 foot waves and storm surge flooding was predicted. There has been no word yet on the actual impact. A hurricane warning remains in effect.
Some excerpts of interest from the NHC’s 5PM product suite:
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CONSENSUS TRACKS HAVE SHOWN THE USUAL VARIABILITY TO THE RIGHT OR TO THE LEFT FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD OFFSHORE BUT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN SIZE OF THE HURRICANE, A HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. IT IS ONCE AGAIN EMPHASIZED THAT ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW LANDFALL, USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE INTENSE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ITS DANGEROUS WINDS CLOSER TO OR ONTO THE FLORIDA COAST.
And the 5PM key messages:
1. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL AFFECT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TONIGHT. EVERYONE THERE SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE INTO THE EYE. 2. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DORIAN NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 3. THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AND LISTEN TO ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. 4. HEAVY RAINS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS, ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
Next updated track is due at 11PM. Keep calm and carry on… but remain vigilant. We’ll be really paying attention on Monday to see what our Tuesday is going to bring. The attractions area is NOT in the doom and gloom scenarios we see playing out elsewhere, but there’s still a risk for impacts here and we need to be ready for them. We’ll all get through this!