Elsa Hanging On; Likely a Rainmaker for Attractions. Don’t Panic.

Tropical Storm Elsa has been remarkable to watch, with the storm looking more impressive on satellite while simultaneously weakening in intensity. Even the most aggressive forecast models, those notorious of overstating the intensity of tropical systems, are falling in line with the idea that the storm will almost certainly not regain hurricane strength before it reaches the Florida mainland.

This is, of course, good news for the Attractions area, which remains within the cone of the storm’s potential path from Tuesday to Wednesday. As before, the National Hurricane Center continues to caution that there’s a good deal of uncertainty on intensity and track that won’t be better-resolved until the storm finishes its trek over Cuba sometime on Monday, but even their latest forecast discussion notes that their official intensity forecast is actually on the upper end of the model consensus.

Still, there’s concern that central Florida remains on the “sloppy” side of the storm, with a risk of heavy rain and even a few spin-up tornadoes as unsettled weather passes through. Let’s not forget that in 2019, the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor spawned a massive tornado that caused significant damage in Kathleen, FL. Forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center show the possibility of 2-3 inches of rain at the Attractions over the next seven days, and a 10%-20% chance of flash flooding. We’ll be watching Storm Prediction Center for any future severe weather outlooks, though the current outlooks for the upcoming week do not indicate any severe potential.

Keep calm and carry on!

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