Tropical Storm Watches West of Attractions; Wind and Rain Impacts Possible. Don’t Panic.

The National Hurricane Center continues to zero in on Tropical Storm Elsa’s path as the storm finishes its interactions with Cuba today and makes its way toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Lake County, which lies one county west of Orange County (home of Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld), is under a tropical storm watch. The latest forecast for that area suggests that most winds will remain under tropical storm strength, mostly 20-30 MPH with occasional gusts up to 40 MPH at times. 2-3 inches of rain is also possible, with higher amounts up to 5 inches possible in some areas. The full text of the local impacts for Lake County is provided at the end of this post.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in dark red, while Tropical Storm Watches are in lighter pink.

As the storm continues to make its way into the Gulf and eventually across the peninsula, there’s an increased risk of spin-up tornadoes in the bands of rain and wind that might pass through the area. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Attractions Area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather as the center of the system passes through to the northwest.

NWS SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday and Wednesday are days to be weather aware – make sure you have a method to hear warnings if issued. Keep calm and carry on!

000
WTUS82 KMLB 051512
TCVMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Elsa Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052021
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

FLZ044-052315-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northern Lake-
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Leesburg
    - The Villages
    - Mount Dora

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm 
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be 
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind 
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees 
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown 
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving 
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts up to 5 inches.

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for 
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues 
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take 
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life. 

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations 
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with 
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, 
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, 
          creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken 
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas 
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and 
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on 
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. 
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge 
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several 
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger 
          damage paths.
        - PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats 
          should prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous 
          weather arrives.
        - ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado 
          warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the 
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few 
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and 
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile 
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped 
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed 
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - https://www.ready.gov
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts
        - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

$$

FLZ144-052315-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southern Lake-
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Clermont
    - Mascotte

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm 
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be 
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind 
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored 
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or 
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees 
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown 
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within 
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving 
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally 
          higher amounts up to 5 inches.

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for 
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from 
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues 
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area 
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take 
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life. 

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations 
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with 
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, 
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, 
          creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken 
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas 
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and 
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on 
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. 
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge 
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: 
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST 
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several 
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the 
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for 
          several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger 
          damage paths.
        - PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats 
          should prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous 
          weather arrives.
        - ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado 
          warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the 
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few 
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and 
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile 
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped 
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed 
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - https://www.ready.gov
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts
        - http://www.weather.gov/mlb

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