The National Hurricane Center continues to zero in on Tropical Storm Elsa’s path as the storm finishes its interactions with Cuba today and makes its way toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Lake County, which lies one county west of Orange County (home of Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld), is under a tropical storm watch. The latest forecast for that area suggests that most winds will remain under tropical storm strength, mostly 20-30 MPH with occasional gusts up to 40 MPH at times. 2-3 inches of rain is also possible, with higher amounts up to 5 inches possible in some areas. The full text of the local impacts for Lake County is provided at the end of this post.
As the storm continues to make its way into the Gulf and eventually across the peninsula, there’s an increased risk of spin-up tornadoes in the bands of rain and wind that might pass through the area. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Attractions Area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather as the center of the system passes through to the northwest.
Tuesday and Wednesday are days to be weather aware – make sure you have a method to hear warnings if issued. Keep calm and carry on!
000
WTUS82 KMLB 051512
TCVMLB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Elsa Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL052021
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
FLZ044-052315-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Northern Lake-
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Leesburg
- The Villages
- Mount Dora
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts up to 5 inches.
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger
damage paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats
should prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous
weather arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb
$$
FLZ144-052315-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southern Lake-
1112 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Clermont
- Mascotte
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts up to 5 inches.
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger
damage paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats
should prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous
weather arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- https://www.ready.gov
- Local weather conditions and forecasts
- http://www.weather.gov/mlb